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Stock Analysis SOP

Purpose

The openfin analysis stock command runs automated multi-dimension quantitative analysis on individual stocks. It produces a BUY / HOLD / SELL recommendation with confidence level and supporting evidence.

This is a quantitative screen, not a decision. Use it as one input alongside thesis-driven scoring (Layer 2). The automated signal tells you "what the numbers say"; thesis alignment tells you "what the story says."

Running the Analysis

# Single stock
openfin analysis stock AAPL

# Multiple stocks
openfin analysis stock NVDA,MSFT,AVGO

# JSON output (for programmatic use)
openfin analysis stock AAPL --json

# Verbose (shows progress)
openfin analysis stock AAPL --verbose

Execution time: 3-5 seconds per ticker. Shared market indicators (VIX, Fear & Greed, breaking news) are cached for 1 hour across tickers.

Analysis Dimensions (8 for Stocks)

Dimension Weight What It Measures
Earnings Surprise 30% Most recent quarter EPS beat/miss vs consensus
Fundamentals 20% P/E ratio, operating margins, revenue growth, debt/equity
Analyst Sentiment 20% Consensus rating, price target upside/downside, analyst count
Historical Patterns 10% Last 4 quarters beat rate, average earnings day reaction
Market Context 10% VIX level, SPY/QQQ 10-day trends, safe-haven flight detection
Sector Performance 15% Stock vs sector ETF 1-month return, sector trend
Momentum 15% RSI-14, 52-week range positioning, volume ratio
Sentiment 10% Fear & Greed (contrarian), short interest, VIX structure, insider trades, put/call ratio

Note: Weights sum to >100% because not all dimensions are always available. The system auto-normalizes based on which dimensions return data.

Interpreting the Output

  • Score ranges from -1.0 to +1.0. Positive = bullish, negative = bearish.
  • Recommendation: BUY (score > 0.33), SELL (score < -0.33), HOLD (between).
  • Confidence: 0-100%, reduced by risk flags (earnings timing, overbought, risk-off, geopolitical).
  • Risk Flags: Specific conditions that reduce confidence or downgrade BUY → HOLD.
  • Supporting Points: Key evidence from each dimension.
  • Caveats: Data freshness warnings, risk alerts, data gaps.

Reconciling with Thesis Scoring

During weekly review Phase 2 (rubric scoring), use the automated signal as context:

  1. Run analysis before scoring: openfin analysis stock <watchlist_tickers>
  2. Compare signals:
  3. Automated BUY + thesis weakening → Investigate. Numbers look good but story is failing.
  4. Automated SELL + thesis confirming → Automated may be catching a risk the story misses (e.g., momentum collapse, sector weakness).
  5. Automated HOLD + thesis strong → Trust the thesis. Hold conviction, automated signal is neutral.
  6. Cite risk flags as evidence: Use openfin review evidence to record risk flags.
  7. Thesis alignment (40% weight) remains dominant. The automated signal informs but does not override thesis-driven judgment.

Data Sources & Freshness

Source Data Lag
Yahoo Finance Prices, fundamentals, earnings, analyst targets 15-20 min
CNN Fear & Greed Market sentiment index (0-100) Near real-time
SEC EDGAR Insider trading (Form 4 filings) 2-3 days
Google News RSS Breaking crisis headlines 15-60 min
VIX Futures Volatility term structure 15-20 min

When to Use

  • Before weekly review Phase 2 — get automated quantitative context for all watchlist symbols
  • New thesis evaluation — quick quantitative screen before deep fundamental research
  • Ad-hoc deep dives — when a position shows unusual movement
  • Earnings season — automated signal includes earnings timing warnings

Persistence

Results are persisted as data_snapshots (type stock_analysis) in the database. Query historical signals:

openfin tools db latest-snapshot --type stock_analysis --symbol AAPL
openfin tools db history --type stock_analysis --symbol AAPL

Limitations

  • Yahoo Finance data is delayed 15-20 minutes (not real-time)
  • Short interest data is ~2 weeks old (FINRA reporting schedule)
  • Insider trades may lag SEC filing by 2-3 days
  • Breaking news is scanned via Google News RSS (15-60 min lag)
  • US markets only; non-US tickers may have incomplete data
  • No thesis context — the automated signal doesn't know your investment story